Journal of Economics and Political Sciences

The The Impact of Security Instability on Local Currency Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Its Simulation in Both Official and Black Market

2025-04-06T19:33:38+00:00

This study investigates the impact of security factors on the depreciation of the local currency and forecasts its exchange rate in both the official and black markets. The research employs the Johansen cointegration technique to estimate the long-term relationship and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for short-term analysis, utilizing daily data from January 2018 to August 2024. Additionally, the study applies the Triple Exponential Smoothing (DES, ESE, H-W without seasonality, H-W Additive Seasonal, and H-W Multiplicative Seasonal) method to forecast the period from mid-August 2024 to mid-August 2025. The findings indicate that security instability (D2), driven by conflicts, has a significant long-term effect on the value of the Libyan dinar. Similarly, security instability (D3), caused by kidnappings and hostage situations, negatively influences the value of the local currency over the long term. The local currency is projected to continue depreciating in the official market, reaching approximately 6.9 dinars per dollar by August 2025. On the black market, it is expected to rise to around 8.50 dinars per dollar by early August 2025.

The Impact of Cybersecurity on Management Information Systems Requirements

2025-03-22T14:36:27+00:00

This study aimed to analyze the impact of cybersecurity on the requirements of management information systems from the perspective of employees at the University of Tripoli. The study utilized a descriptive analytical approach and relied on a questionnaire as a data collection tool. A total of 52 questionnaires were distributed to a random sample of employees, and all were valid for analysis using SPSS. The results indicated a statistically significant correlation between cybersecurity and the requirements of management information systems, with a strong positive and statistically significant correlation within the university. The study's recommendations include enhancing cybersecurity strategies through sustainable development plans to improve the efficiency of management information systems and addressing current weaknesses. Additionally, the study recommends continuing to strengthen the positive relationship between cybersecurity and the requirements of management information systems by integrating the latest technologies in daily operations to ensure data protection and improve performance.

Keywords: Cybersecurity, Human Requirements for Management Information Systems, Financial Requirements for Management Information Systems, Technical Requirements for Management Information Systems.

E Integrating Ecofeminism and Panarchy: Transforming Management Theory for Sustainable Environmental Governance in Libya

2025-03-17T13:58:27+00:00

This study critically examines the role of management theory and practice in exacerbating environmental crises within the Anthropocene epoch, explicitly focusing on Libya’s environmental challenges, including oil pollution, water scarcity, and desertification. By integrating ecofeminist perspectives, the research addresses the interconnected oppression of women and environmental degradation, highlighting the pivotal contributions of women in sustainable resource management and community resilience. A comprehensive conceptual review methodology was employed, synthesising literature from peer-reviewed journals, books, and recent studies (2020-2024) to expand upon Burrell & Morgan’s (1979) paradigm differentiation. The analysis reveals that traditional management paradigms, characterised by anthropocentric and extractive practices, fail to account for the complex, multi-scalar interactions inherent in Libya’s socio-environmental systems. Instead, adopting a panarchic framework alongside ecofeminism offers a more inclusive and resilient approach to environmental governance. Findings indicate that incorporating gender-sensitive and ecocentric principles into management theories enhances organisational adaptability and sustainability, particularly in Libya, where women are crucial in grassroots environmental initiatives and community-based conservation efforts. This research contributes to the literature by proposing a novel ecosystemic panarchy paradigm that bridges management theory with ecological and gender considerations, advocating a systemic shift towards sustainable and equitable environmental practices. Future research should explore actionable strategies for operationalising ecosystemic panarchy and further investigate the integration of ecofeminist principles in diverse socio-cultural settings to foster global environmental resilience.

Testing the Random Walk Model on the EMAS Islamic Index of the Malaysian Stock Exchange: An Applied Study on the EMAS Islamic Index from 2007 to 2018

2025-05-07T19:42:40+00:00

Objectives: This study aims to test the efficiency of the Islamic stock market in the Malaysian Stock Exchange at the weak form level, using the Random Walk Model.

Methodology: The study followed statistical and econometric methods, including tests such as the normality test, serial correlation test, runs test, unit root test (stationarity), and variance ratio test, to evaluate the primary and secondary hypotheses. The study sample consisted of daily and weekly return series of the EMAS Islamic Index, which represents the Islamic capital market in Malaysia, during the period from 2007 to 2018, with a total of 2,804 daily return observations and 573 weekly return observations.

Results: The results of the normality test showed that the daily and weekly return series of the EMAS index do not follow a normal distribution. There is potential to use directional movements of returns in Malaysia's Islamic stock market, on both a daily and weekly basis, to predict future movements and prices. The serial correlation and runs tests captured the randomness of the weekly return time series of the index, indicating that the weekly return series are independent and non-reliant, thus following the Random Walk Model. However, the results of the stationarity and variance ratio tests did not support market efficiency, indicating that the daily and weekly return time series of the index are not random and do not follow the Random Walk Model, suggesting that the Islamic stock market in the Malaysian Stock Exchange is not efficient at the weak form level.

Conclusion: There is a need to improve the Shariah-compliance efficiency of the Islamic stock market in the Malaysian Stock Exchange, with a focus on correcting pricing imbalances and reducing Shariah-related risks, as these factors play a significant role in attracting investors and enhancing operational efficiency, ultimately improving market efficiency.

Keywords: Weak-form market efficiency, EMAS Islamic Index,Random Walk Model

Enhancing Financial Monitoring and Reporting with Artificial Intelligence

2025-03-18T13:50:19+00:00

The articulation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) which is being used to control financial monitoring and reporting has been a change of the typical habits, now giving more results, certainty, and more excitability. This study aims to shed light on the role of artificial intelligence in financial management, focusing on how they revolutionize monitoring and reporting. A combination of the latest technology and the proven facts of the survey we carried out is the basis of this study. It outlines the very effective application of AI-based tools in spotting and hence accurate prognosis of some trends as well as two-dimensional operation by the introduction of automation. As a result of the focus on AI capabilities, time-consuming and tedious tasks are eliminated. Besides anomalies and trends, proper handling of this data without human involvement is another significant capability. The benefits and costs of AI adoption in organizations are illustrated in detail in the study. Clearly, this enhanced financial reportage and compliance show that AI contributes to the further improvement of finance despite the fact that there are still problems concerning the data quality and the transparency of algorithms. The research completes with the suggestion for the best use of AI integration in financial contexts.

Analyzing the Efficiency of Libya’s Agricultural Sector for Growth and Sustainability: A DEA-Based Study to Identify Inefficiencies and Improvement Opportunities

2025-04-17T06:56:48+00:00

This study aims to analyze the efficiency of Libya’s agricultural sector using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) while identifying the factors influencing efficiency through the Tobit model. Time series data for the period 2002-2022 were analyzed to assess the performance of the agricultural sector in light of Libya’s economic and political transformations. The DEA results revealed significant variations in technical efficiency levels across different economic periods. The period of stability and relative growth (2002-2010) recorded the highest efficiency levels, driven by increased government spending and an improved agricultural investment environment. In contrast, the period of instability and turmoil (2011-2016) witnessed a sharp decline in efficiency due to the collapse of state institutions, reduced agricultural support, and weakened investments. Meanwhile, the period of partial recovery (2017-2022) showed slight improvements in efficiency but remained below the desired level, reflecting persistent challenges in resource allocation and weak agricultural policies.The results also highlighted the impact of fluctuations in agricultural investment, availability of natural resources, agricultural labor, and technology levels on production efficiency. Through the Tobit model, it was found that agricultural labor, agricultural investment, water availability, and corruption levels negatively affected efficiency, indicating structural challenges in resource allocation and inefficiencies in agricultural policies. Conversely, the level of agricultural technology was found to have no significant impact, emphasizing the need to enhance the utilization of modern technologies and promote agricultural innovation.

Based on these findings, the study recommends restructuring government support, improving agricultural resource management policies, combating corruption, fostering effective investments in agricultural technology, and developing training programs for agricultural labor. Implementing these recommendations would contribute to achieving agricultural sustainability, enhancing food security, and improving the efficiency of Libya’s agricultural sector in the face of economic and climatic challenges.

Measuring the Technical Efficiency of Libyan Banks using Data Envelopment Analysis

2025-02-01T15:00:21+00:00

The main objective of this study is to measure banking efficiency of Libyan banks during 2010-2019. The study employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) input-orientated model. Constat Return to Scale (CRS) and Variable Return to Scale (VRS) were used to measure the relative efficiency. The study follows intermediation approach to select two inputs and two outputs. The study includes three sections plus introduction and conclusion, section one: previews studies, section two: literature review, and section three: practical study. The result shows that the Libyan banks do not manage their sources and inputs efficiently, the average of overall technical efficiency of Libyan banks is 84.1%, which means there was waste of 15.9% of input, in addition, average of PTE and SE 93%, 90.6% respectively. the findings indicate that private banks more efficient than state banks, also large banks more efficient than small bank.

the Geographical location and diversification of sources of income in the Libyan economy

2025-05-12T19:54:09+00:00

This research aims to study Libya's geographical location and explore its potential role in diversifying national income sources. It adopts a descriptive-analytical approach, with four main axes. The first addresses the concept of economic diversification and its indicators, while the second focuses on analyzing the economic indicators of the landlocked African countries neighboring Libya. The third axis explores the potential offered by Libya's geographical location in supporting Libyan economic diversification.

The research concludes with several findings, most notably that Libya's geographical location is one of the most important strategic advantages that can be leveraged to diversify income sources by establishing and activating free economic zones along the northern coast and in the southern border regions. However, the actual performance of these zones remains limited, primarily due to weak infrastructure, including a dilapidated road network, a low-efficiency banking system, and weak communications networks.

Based on this, the research recommends giving top priority to developing infrastructure projects and accelerating the establishment of free zones, thus enabling optimal use of Libya's strategic geographical location to support economic diversification in Libya.