Tracing and Modelling Hepatitis C virus Epidemic in Libyan Health Care Settings

Date

2012-11

Type

Conference paper

Conference title

First/HIS international conference in Liverpool 2012

Author(s)

Abdallah H El-Bouzedi
J. Ameen, M
M.Griffith
M.A. Daw.

Abstract

The epidemic of hepatitis C virus (HCV), discovered in 1989. The World Health Organization has declared hepatitis C is major public health issue worldwide, with approximately 3% of the world’s population infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). There are more than 170 million chronic carriers at risk of developing liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) . A national epidemiological study were conducted in Libya estimated that 1.19% of Libyan general population was HCV seropositive in 2004-2005, and so approximately 70,000 persons were infected with hepatitis, which has population of 6,000.000 . To obtain projection of the long term squeal of HCV infections in Libya, including cirrhosis, liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and HCV related mortality, this required know of the disease stage for this currently infected population and /or time of infection, as well as the progression of HCV disease stages. These parameters are unknown and need to be estimate. To overcome these difficulties, mathematical modelling has been employed in France and elsewhere by Deuffic et al, (1999, 2006). This model was adopted in this research to reconstruct the past infection curve and to project HCV related mortality in Libya until 2035. Hence, Delphi technique was involved in the process of estimating only the parameters of the natural history.