Abstract
Conflicts of interest (COI) are an integral part of human society, including their influence on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change. Individuals or entities often have multiple interests ranging from financial benefits to reducing climate change-related risks, where choosing one interest may negatively impact other interests and societal welfare. These types of COI require specific management strategies. This study examines COI from land-use decisions as an intersection of different perspectives on land use (e.g., land conservation versus land development), which can have various consequences regarding GHG emissions. This study uses the state of New Jersey (NJ) in the United States of America (USA) as a case study to demonstrate COI related to soil-based GHG emissions from land conversions between 2001 and 2016 which caused $722.2M (where M = million = 106) worth of “realized” social costs of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) emissions. These emissions are currently not accounted for in NJ’s total carbon footprint (CF), which can negatively impact the state’s ability to reach its carbon reduction goals. The state of NJ Statutes Annotated 26:2C-37 (2007): Global Warming Response Act (GWRA) (updated in 2019) set a statewide goal of reducing GHG emissions to 80 percent below 2006 levels by 2050. Remote sensing and soil data analysis allow temporal and quantitative assessment of the contribution of land cover conversions to NJ’s CF by soil carbon type, soil type, land cover type, and administrative units (state, counties), which helps document past, and estimate future related GHG emissions using a land cover change scenario to calculate the amount of GHG emissions if an area of land was to be developed. Decisions related to future land conversions involve potential COI within and outside state administrative structures, which could be managed by a conflict-of-interest policy. The site and time-specific disclosures of GHG emissions from land conversions can help governments manage these COI to mitigate climate change impacts and costs by assigning financial responsibility for specific CF contributions. Projected sea-level rise will impact 16 out of 21 NJ’s counties and it will likely reach coastal areas with densely populated urban areas throughout NJ. Low proportion of available public land limits opportunities for relocation. Increased climate-change-related damages in NJ and elsewhere will increase the number of climate litigation cases to alleviate costs associated with climate change. This litigation will further highlight the importance and intensity of different COI.