ملخص
A B S T R A C T The term "twin miracle," or "double deficit," emerged during the 1980s when the US economy experienced a deficit in both the public budget and the trade balance. The relationship between the two is a very important economic issue not only in developed countries but also in developing countries, between the general budget and trade balance in Libya In the absence of the private sector, is directly affected by the changes in the price of oil in the global market. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between the general budget and the balance of trade to measure the mutual impact between fiscal policy and politics to trade in Libya during the period (2000 – 2010), and aimed to measure the degree of economic exposure to the Libyan economy to the outside world in the absence of the private sector. To accomplish the objects of this study we implement the, analytical method was used to analyze the available data on the two variables, the general budget and the trade balance in the economy- Analysis of the economic exposure of the Libyan economy Analyzing the degree of economic exposure to the Libyan economy and the importance of the private sector during the period (2000-2010) - Analysis of the balance of trade in the Libyan economy during the period (2000-2010)-Analysis of the mutual effect between the items of the general budget and trade balance items during the period (2000-2010)- Trends in the proportion of each of the net general budget and trade balance to GDP during the period (2000 – 2010)-Measuring the elasticity of imports for the Libyan GDP during the period (2000-2010) The most important results of the study: - The Libyan economy in the absence of the private sector’s participation, suffers from a degree of openness to the outside world increased from 44.8% in 2000 to 91.3% in 2008 through the export of crude oil, which represents the majority of its exports and imports of consumer goods and investment-The lack of harmony between the movement of exports and public revenues in addition to the incompatibility between the evolution of the status of public order and the movement of imports reflected on the incompatibility between the deficit movement in the general budget and the deficit in the balance of trade-The proportion of deficit in both the balance of trade and the general budget to GDP in most of the time goes in one direction, which confirms the strong correlation between the general budget and the balance of trade in the Libyan economy-The internal flexibility of imports decreased from 2.18% in 2000 to 0.98% in 2008The study made several recommendations: The need for diversification of exports, especially in which the Libyan economy has a comparative advantage (industries dependent on the inputs of the oil sector), diversification of the productive structure, and finding alternative sources of income to finance development projects instead of relying on export of oil and the accompanying fluctuations in prices. Other economic sectors, the most important of which are the industrial sector