Abstract
Since the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic, the world has been impressed by twothings: The number of infections and the alarming death toll. Here, we propose amathematical model of the spread of this disease, analyze this model mathemati-cally, and determine one or more dominant factors in the propagation of theCOVID-19 epidemic. We consider the S-I-R epidemic model in the form of ordi-nary differential equations in a population structured in susceptibles S, infected I,and recovered R classes. After the model construction, we calculated the primaryreproduction number R0, which is a function of a certain number of parameters. Inour paper, the mathematical analysis, which consists of searching the equilibriumpoints and studying their stability, is done. The work identifies some parameters onwhich one can act to control the spread of the disease. The numerical simulationsare done for Libya’s data for months, and they illustrate our theoretical analysis.